puka shell jewelry wholesale How long can this bull market be maintained in the stock market?

Celia

November 29, 2022 at 5:25 pm

gemstone jewelry wholesale india
has 4 bull markets in the history of A shares, which may be the fifth time.
Among them, there is only one slow cattle, and the remaining three times are mad cows.
. It is like it. At 95 o'clock in 1990 to 1429 points, it took 2 years;
is like the 325 o'clock in 1994 to 2245 points, which has experienced more than 6 years; r;
. It ’s like that in 2005 998 points rose to 6124 points, and it took about 2 years;
is like it. It rose to 5,178 points in 2013, which took about 2 years; r; r; r;
Therefore, the market of slow cows may have 6 years, and the market of Crazy Cow is generally completed in about 2 years.
The now, A shares have started from 2440 points in January 2019.
In July 2020, in fact, it has experienced more than a year.
and from the current stage.
The bull market is likely to have entered the second cycle, that is, the index setting up, the process of singing in individual stocks.
then, if according to the logic of Crazy Cow, in fact, the A -share bull market is less than one year.
But if according to the logic of slow cows, in fact, there are still more than 3 years in A shares.
this time, I saw whether the bottom was a mad cow, or a slow cow!
but whether it is crazy or slow cow, everyone must remember!
This bubble bubbles, the bear market is squeezed in the bubble; sooner or later, the bubbles will be blown, and the foam will be crowded after all. But no matter what the market, recognize the stock that you can make money, and hold it firmly to achieve the final victory. A stock rising time may be only 10%, and the remaining 90%of the days are not adjusting or falling.
If you hold this stock in those 90%time, but because the last 10%arrived, he could not stand the long torment and sold it, which can only be a kind of sorrow.

In recent times, A -share stocks have performed quite powerful, but last Friday, A -shares made an average of more than 20,000 yuan per person.
Faced with the hot scene of A shares, many people cheered and prepared to enter A shares. Many official media also came out to report that the A -share bull market came.

From the recent A -share performance, the bull market does come. As for how long this bull market can last, we can analyze from two aspects to analyze from two aspects. Essence
First, refer to the duration and increase of the historical bull market. From 1990 to the present, A shares have experienced several rounds of bull markets:
The first round of bull markets were from December 1990 to May 26, 1992. This time, because the A -share market was launched at the time It lasts for a long time, reaching a year and a half, A shares rose from 96 to 1427, an increase of 14.8 times.
The second bull market was from November 17, 1992 to February 16, 1993. At that time, A shares rose from 386 points to 1558 points, an increase of 303 %. This round of bull market lasted three months.
The third round of bull markets from July 29, 1994 to September 13, 1994. This round of bull market lasted very short, only one month, but the increase was quite fierce. %.
In the fourth round of bull markets from January 19, 1996 to May 12, 1997, lasting for nearly 4 months, in this round of bull markets, the stock market rose about 250%.
Then round bull market is from May 19, 1999 to June 14, 2001. The duration reaches two years and one month. Among this round of bull market, the Shanghai Index will reach 2245 points from the highest peak period from 1047 points. The increase reached 114%.
The 6th bull market is from June 6, 2005 to October 16, 2007. The duration reaches two years and 4 months. In this round of bull market, A shares have created the highest historical point, from 998 points, from 998 points It rushed until 6124, an increase of 513.49%.
This 7 bull market from October 29, 2008 to August 4, 2009. The duration is about 10 months. Among this round of bull market, the Shanghai Index has risen from 1664 to 3478 points, the increase reached to reaching the increase of reaching the increase. 109 %. rn 第8次牛市是从2014年7月22日到2015年6月12日，持续时间大概是11个月，在这轮牛市当中，大盘从2000点左右一直飙到5178点，涨幅It reaches about 159%.
In observing previous A -share bull markets, we can see that the shortest duration of the bull market is one and a half months, and the longest is about two and a half years.
In terms of increase, the lowest increase was 109%, and the highest increase reached 14.8 times.
. In this round of bull market, it should start from mid -March 2020. From around 2600 points in mid -March to 3,400 points now, A shares rose 30%, which means that if it is if it is This bull market is a real bull, which may still have a considerable room for rise.
This bull market has been last for more than three months. With reference to the long time of the bull market, it shows that there is still a long room for this round of bull market.
Is, understand the cause of this bull market. A -share bear cows are alternately a very normal law. There are some motivation for each appearance of the bull market, and there are some causes of the appearance of the bear market.
For example, among the several bull markets that appear in history, several times are caused by market funds that become more abundant, which is quite similar to the performance of this bull market.
In this round of bull market, due to the impact of the epidemic, the capital has become more abundant, which is also one of the main thrusts to promote the rise in the bull market.
So if you want to know how long this bull market can last, we must see how long the market funds will last.
I personally think that in the second half of the remaining half of 2020, my country's capital will continue to be in a state of abundant state. In addition, my country ’s further relaxation of foreign capital management and control. The situation.
On the other hand, the current real estate has also reached an inflection point, and the overall performance of the manufacturing industry is not ideal, so there will still be a lot of funds entering the stock market in the future.
But according to the predictions of relevant agencies, it is estimated that by the third quarter of 2020, my country's GDP growth rate will return to about 5.8%. By 2021, the growth rate of my country's overall GDP may even reach more than 8%.
Once the economy returns to the normal growth rate, or even the growth rate is faster, then the central bank may tighten the silver root at any time.
So I personally think that in the third quarter of 2020, it may become a key node for A shares. Once the economy returns to normal level, the central bank's funds will not continue to relax. By the end of the year, market funds may usher in an inflection point. By then, if the market funds are not enough to maintain the number of days, the stock market may start to turn.
This, I think that the bull market in A shares may still last for three to 6 months. After 3 months, A shares may be in a relatively stable state, and even slowly regulate slowly recovery back. And half a year later, no one knows the answer.
It how long the bull market can go, there is no theory to predict this kind of thing, because there are too many factors that are unpredictable. For example, who will know this wave of epidemic in advance and directly increase the world economy in 2020 to grow negatively. In this way, in this way Based on, is it possible for A shares to start the bull market? I think it is impossible. At best, it is the initial stage of the bull market.
If the end of the upper wave market, which is 2440 points, how long will this market go under normal circumstances? Some people may compare 998-6124 points and 1849-5178. These two waves of markets are the monthly line level, from the lowest point to the highest point for about two years. However, the author believes that such predictions are not suitable for this round.
First of all, the ecology of A shares is changing
1. The market value increases. In 2008 and 15 years, the market value of A shares is very small, and the market value of circulation is less. The expansion capacity has begun from 15 years, and now, the A -share stocks have been close to 4,000, and the market value has reached 70 trillion.
2. The status of dominant funds has been excessive from swimming to the hands of institutional funds
3. The registration system and the improvement of the delisting system, allowing the survival system of A shares to gradually mature The change determines that the past and falling market cannot appear in A shares. Therefore, the next wave of markets of A shares will be longer than before. The reality is the same. After returning to 2440 in 2019, it has not yet opened up the main rise, but a slow rising trend. This trend is healthier.
Secondly, the structure of this wave of market is different
. We put the market of A shares on the monthly line, and 6124 and 5178 are actually shocked in a center. The platform, and this wave is different, the 2440 points have not returned to the previous center, which means that this wave of market is the third category of buying points in the moon line, and after the first rising center, the strong monthly line three buy That is to say, there is enough space in the back to make San buy play.
Finally, the driver of the market rising is different
6124 The driver of that wave is the reform of the equity system. 5178 points are the release of financing. These messages have enough influence, but the continuity is not strong. As soon as time, the good effect will decrease, just like the US tax reduction, just a momentary good. The drive of this round of market is different. The author believes that there are many aspects. The system has a registration system and delisting system. It is economically 5G. This is the focus. 5G commercial use is comparable to the existence of an industrial revolution. The remote operation becomes reality and breaks the restrictions of the space distance.
This summary: The results of the US stocks relying on the results of the third industrial revolution in the 1980s have gone out of a 20 -year bull market. Can A shares rely on the advent of the 5G era? The author thinks it is very likely that it may not be able to walk for 20 years, but it will definitely be better than the previous two waves.
I remember the relatively famous big bull market in history for 2000 online stock markets, which last for 2 years, and then generated a quotation of 2,000 to 6000 points. The relatively long bull market, it is not difficult to make a conclusion, either a new economic activity that changes people's lifestyle has triggered a big market, or the big bull market brought by institutional changes. The bull market.
and is this market this time, or how long can it last?
I I think first of all, this market is the market that appears under the drive of the registration system, because the registration system is an emerging system, which changes the extremes of the market for a long time. A large number of new stock market -oriented issuance will inevitably cause a number of high -quality companies to go public, which is greatly beneficial to promoting the market valuation.
Since the registration system is an emerging system, it belongs to the product of institutional change. According to the model of the past equity distribution reform, the stock market should appear in the stock market. The characteristics are relatively obvious. After all, the registration system is under the registered system. Not all companies can fully perform in the bull market. Otherwise Small.
The slow cattle will be the main pattern of the future. I estimate that this duration will be as long as for a few years. I exaggerate that it may copy the continuous upward trend of the US stock market.
If forecast: The Securities and Futures Commission's control will be strict. Without the support of the real economy, it is not over the end of the epidemic. If you are about a month or two, you will see it.
First of all, the emergence of this bull market is that the international epidemic has continued to deteriorate, and domestic production is relatively good, which attracts foreign capital and speculation. The domestic international monetary policy is generally loose, and the market funds are relatively abundant, but the real economy is not as good as in previous years. House prices have stagnated, and the stock market has become a better speculative choice.
The second, this wave of technical cattle has lasted for more than three months, but it is particularly noticeable in the past week. Marx said that when there were more than 20%of profits, the capital was about to move. At present, a large number of retail investors have begun to act, a new round of leeks are growing rapidly, and the cow of the stock market is also soaring.
third, how long can the bull market last this time? Personal judgment will not be too far away, depending on the flow of epidemic and institutional funds. The reason for technology cattle is because the stock market lacks the support of the real economy for a period of time and in the future. The current bull market is only the risk of epidemic risk superimposed on the currency easing policy and speculative needs. When the institutional funds leave the market on a large scale, it is when the bear market comes.
How long can this bull market be maintained? This is not a predictive thing. Anyone says that they can predict how much bull market and bull market, or scammers and gods can be scammers and god sticks. The so -called bull markets, including the ten years of bull markets in the United States and the domestic history, are all unpredictable -when does it end? Often either either the end of the crazy, or the "accident" blows lead to the end.
For example, the ten -year bull market in the United States has been interrupted by this year's global new crown epidemic situation. Looking back, it once again entered the "technical bull market" -the index increased by more than 20%, which is the so -called "technical bull market" standard in Wall Street.
, from our country, the bull market was interrupted by the economic growth rate of the economic growth in 05-07 and the US financial crisis in 2008 — entering the bear market from the bull market;
and the bull market for 14-15 years. "Barbar break" was interrupted -forcibly went to fund -sharing to remove the lever bar and caused the bull market to enter the "stock disaster" model.
What stage is the current market?
First, the technology bull market and consumer pharmaceutical bull market transfer to the financial bull market -financial brokers, banks, insurance, double the trend and the continuous soaring model in just two weeks.
Secondly, incremental funds in the market swarmed into the venue.
It, from the perspective of the former, it is mainly the state's positive attitude towards the stock market and the reform of the Shanghai Index Comprehensive Index, and the reform of the GEM registration system, which has caused the market's "bull market expectation" "Change" must be "cow".
In the case of epidemic conditions, the state's expectations of increasing stock market financing support entities are very strong, including the policy support of science and technology boards, GEM, and local banks to supplement capital supplement capital.

. If it is currently, the main reasons for the increase of more than 50%in the short term of financial banks and insurance in the financial company are:
First, incremental funds enter the stock market The value depression that is unwilling to take over high levels of science and technology and medicine, but is willing to lay down an underestimated value depression;
second, the gradual improvement of financial reform expectations brings investment expectations;
third, the transaction level of the two cities is rapidly magnified rapidly At present, it is the fourth day to enter trillion.

Historically, "trillion" is a necessary prerequisite for the bull market, not sufficient necessary conditions.
In fact, it is currently in the market in incremental capital bees, which has led to the rapid amplification of market transactions to the level of "trillion". The expectation of double -clicking of the market transactions to a trillion -level level of market transactions, the more accelerated the rise, thereby forming the formation of "Davis Double -click" in the financial industry.
. As for how much the market bull market is ended or when the market is ended, it still looks:
The first, whether the market depression has been "filled", including finance, real estate and Chinese -character companies ;
It, whether the market valuation level enters the foaming stage -for example, the valuation of pharmaceutical innovation has reached more than 100 times, and technology chips have been talking about "feelings" rather than corporate profitability;
Whether the third market transaction exceeds the peak of history and cannot continue to be enlarged -unable to continue to magnify often means that incremental funds in the market have been exhausted and converted to the stock game;
fourth, it still depends on whether there is an "external accident" One of the most important reasons for the factors that interrupt the bull market -one of the important formation of the inflection point of the bull market in the history of Chinese and foreign is "external factors", including supervision and strong intervention and cracking down hype, including "removing poles".
How how long will the stock market be awesome and how long the bear will be, in fact, no one can fully predict.
In 2007, the broader market rose to 6124 points. Everyone thought that the broader market would exceed 10,000 points. As a result, the broader market suddenly peaked, and it fell to 1664 points, and the decline was very heavy. In the bull market in 2015, the broader market rose to 5178 points. Everyone thinks that it will inevitably break through the 6124 points 8 years ago, and there is no 10,000 points on the standing year. As a result, the broader market once again peaked, and investors lost heavy losses. At each bull market, no one can fully predict where the accurate top.

It is the same during the decline. Every time after a period of time, someone predicts that it is the bottom. The new bull market is coming, but every time it fails. The GEM index rose to 4037 points in 2015. During the decline, it fell to 2500 points and fell to 2,000 points. Many people thought that they had bottomed out. By 1184 points, the decline was as high as 70.7%, and many stocks fell more than 90%, which could not be said to be miserable.

The bottom of the market is really difficult to predict. Therefore, there is often a sentence in the stock market: the bull market is not talking, and the bear market is not bottom. In other words, let us not guess the bottom of the market, the top and bottom are never guessing.
We we can only see if it is roughly in the safety range and dangerous range. For example, when the market falls to 2440 points, the P / Empires of the CSI 300 Index is only 9 times, the P / E ratio of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is only 11 times, and the valuation level is valued at the level of valuation. It is very low, even if it is a decline, there is not much risk.
Similarly, when the stock market rises very high, whether it is 6124 points in 2007 or 5178 points in 2015, it corresponds to a high level of valuation. At this time, it is still possible to rush inside. Take the risk of the top. But the market is not completely rational. When it rises, it will rise, and it will fall over when it falls. For example, when rising, the stock price of many stocks has been seriously separated from the fundamentals, but it is still soaring. At this time, it is no longer its valuation that determines the stock price, but the emotional and funding supply of investors.
Therefore, in the face of the market, we can only choose to be in awe and respect. The market is always right. When we think that the broader market should not rise, it may continue to rise; when we think that the broader market should not fall anymore, we should no longer fall any more. It may continue to fall and even fall even worse. What we should do is to do with the trend.
Is when the market trend is up, the stock market is naturally easier than falling. This is the result of the long -term and long game of the market. At this time, the decline is easier than rising. Even after the bottom -up, it has risen in the short term. There is no selling, and it may fall more afterwards.

The trend can look at the weekly, monthly, and seasonal lines. The longer the cycle trend, the stronger the intensity. This is the most simple truth. There is no need to predict how much is the top, and no one can predict which day is the top. How long can the market last, but we can follow the cycle structure and follow the trend.

In don't always think about how long this bull market will go? In fact, even if there is an accurate answer, what is the relationship with a single investor? Can investors know the date, can they earn the most money in the market? Do you know that the end of the final bull market can become the top master of investment?
Since it is an investment in the securities market, you must have an independent judgment. There are also good stocks in the bear market, and the bull market will still lose money. Aren't there many people warning investors now? The proportion of losing money in the bull market is higher. What does it mean? Even if it is born in a bull market, it is impossible to be all stocks, all sectors, and all broad markets have increased the same. Many investors do not have their own independent opinions, and they will chase and fall. When it is rushing in, it is a stock or section falling in again. The end result was that he did not stand on the cusp, but was swallowed by the waves every time.
The overall securities market will continue to improve in the future. At this time, it is meaningless to study when to reach the end. What should I really study at this time?
1. What kind of investment risk matching ability is it? For example, some people's investment styles are conservative, so the so -called futures and grading funds and other products can only go away from themselves. Regardless of their rise and fall, they should not care or participate. Investors must match their investment strategy with their own investment style, otherwise they may not eat well every day and not sleep well.
2. What kind of investment habits are you? Some people like to run around in the short -term, and some people like to keep it for a long time. Then this investment habit determines your investment target and your views on investment profit and loss. Short -term operators, the pursuit of target profit is relatively low, because they will continue to chase hot spots, and finally accumulate less. And medium and long -term investors used time to increase profit, and strive to eat on a ticket.
Moutai is new again, why didn't you buy Moutai? Have you found the reason? When Mr. De turned back to the book "Stock Memo Memoirs", he discovered the truth, "The courage of speculators is that they have confidence to trade according to their own decisions." Many people think that buying Moutai is a speculative, high price -earnings ratio and single variety, but now it has become the best value investment variety in my country. And whether in the bull market or a bear market, he is the best variety. Is this the end of the Tao bull market?
Why are many people in the bull market, and they are particularly easy to lose money? Mainly because he feels that the money in the bull market seems to be too good to make money, and you can make money if you buy only tickets, so ordinary investors will quickly forget their stock selection standards, and even forget their investment concepts, and buy poor quality. The company may buy a company with a high valuation. In the end, once the market falls, these two types of stocks may never reach a new high, so a real loss will occur.
The everything is related to themselves, not the shortcomings of the cow mayor in the securities market. When we are deep in a bull market, we must change our wrong investment ideas and investment habits to become a professional investor, so as to earn more profits than others in the bull market and avoid it in the bear market in the bear market. More risks and losses.

This year's global global impact is greatly affected by the new crown epidemic, the economic situation is special, and the black swan is frequent. How long can this bull market last in 2020, it is difficult to predict, but it is undeniable that it is The new wave of bull market has come, but to be prepared at any time, whoever is greedy will be cut.
In 2020 Bull market starts from the above data and "from the bear to the cow", in the 2020 cycle, this bull market comes a little fast, some suddenly, and fast cows must accumulate a lot of risks and bubbles. Those who are greedy must be difficult to turn around. They must be prepared at any time to end the bull market. After all, the market is special in 2020, and no one can predict the length of the economic cycle of this round. But assuming that in 2019 as a bear market, the bull market is slower.
How long can this bull market be maintained? We can refer to the time in the history of China's stock market. We can calculate all the "big cows" and "Mavericks" in all history:
-On May 26, 1992, it lasted for a year and a half
The second round of bull market: November 17, 1992-February 16, 1993, maintained three or four months
: July 29, 1994-September 13, 1994, it maintained for more than a month
The fourth round of bull market: January 1996-May 12, 1997, last year and a half
The fifth round of bull market: May 19, 1999-June 15, 2001, last year
The sixth round of bull market: June 6, 2005-October 16, 2007 2 years and 4 months
The seventh round of bull market: October 29, 2008-August 4, 2009, maintained 10 months
The eighth round of bull market: July 22, 2014-2015 On June 12th, the longest bull market was maintained for more than two years, and the shortest bull market was maintained for more than 1 month from the above data analysis.
The conclusion is the so -called bear market squeeze bubble and bull market blowing foam. At present, the global economy is affected by the new crown epidemic, and various types of investment channels have narrowed and investment opportunities are limited. In terms of capital, there will be a large number of funds in the later period of funds, and the bubble will become bigger and bigger.
The next few months in my country's stock market will still rise, but as far as I personally, this bull market will not last too long, and it will be prepared to turn around in the next six months.

Igone A-share bull market cycles: Since 1996, there are five vigorous bull markets for A shares, namely 1996-1997, 1999-2001, 2005-2009, 2008-12009 In year, 2014-2015. These rounds of market indexes have been turned at least within three years. The most magnificent waves have risen from 998 in 2005 to 6124 points, and more than two years have risen more than six times!
Sess years of data show that the bull market cycle is roughly one year to two years. In fact, the starting point of this round of quotes in early 2019, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the starting point of a wave of 2440, should be counted. During the period of nearly a year of two waves, it now enters the wealth of the three waves to rise, and the rich theory of wealth buying three waves and three waves. This is also the reason why countless wave theory followers, and most of the market starts this stage. Recently, these trading days have been the best proof. This is also the stage of many investors shouting the bull market.
The bull market cycle: The index has doubled the market, so instead of discussing the cycle, it is better to consider the market to reach the farthest point. After all, the time effect of crazy cattle and slow bulls is completely different. The calculation of 2440 points in this round of waves is 4880 points, while 6124 and 5178 point high -point connecting wire suppression lines are around 4500, and the final point is near 4500 to 4880 points. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is currently 3345. At the beginning of the stage, how long the market can last depends on how fierce its pull is, slow, and short.

1 thought on “puka shell jewelry wholesale How long can this bull market be maintained in the stock market?”

Celia
November 29, 2022 at 5:25 pm

gemstone jewelry wholesale india
has 4 bull markets in the history of A shares, which may be the fifth time.
Among them, there is only one slow cattle, and the remaining three times are mad cows.
. It is like it. At 95 o'clock in 1990 to 1429 points, it took 2 years;
is like the 325 o'clock in 1994 to 2245 points, which has experienced more than 6 years; r;
. It ’s like that in 2005 998 points rose to 6124 points, and it took about 2 years;
is like it. It rose to 5,178 points in 2013, which took about 2 years; r; r; r;
Therefore, the market of slow cows may have 6 years, and the market of Crazy Cow is generally completed in about 2 years.
The now, A shares have started from 2440 points in January 2019.
In July 2020, in fact, it has experienced more than a year.
and from the current stage.
The bull market is likely to have entered the second cycle, that is, the index setting up, the process of singing in individual stocks.
then, if according to the logic of Crazy Cow, in fact, the A -share bull market is less than one year.
But if according to the logic of slow cows, in fact, there are still more than 3 years in A shares.
this time, I saw whether the bottom was a mad cow, or a slow cow!
but whether it is crazy or slow cow, everyone must remember!
This bubble bubbles, the bear market is squeezed in the bubble; sooner or later, the bubbles will be blown, and the foam will be crowded after all. But no matter what the market, recognize the stock that you can make money, and hold it firmly to achieve the final victory. A stock rising time may be only 10%, and the remaining 90%of the days are not adjusting or falling.
If you hold this stock in those 90%time, but because the last 10%arrived, he could not stand the long torment and sold it, which can only be a kind of sorrow.

In recent times, A -share stocks have performed quite powerful, but last Friday, A -shares made an average of more than 20,000 yuan per person.
Faced with the hot scene of A shares, many people cheered and prepared to enter A shares. Many official media also came out to report that the A -share bull market came.

From the recent A -share performance, the bull market does come. As for how long this bull market can last, we can analyze from two aspects to analyze from two aspects. Essence
First, refer to the duration and increase of the historical bull market. From 1990 to the present, A shares have experienced several rounds of bull markets:
The first round of bull markets were from December 1990 to May 26, 1992. This time, because the A -share market was launched at the time It lasts for a long time, reaching a year and a half, A shares rose from 96 to 1427, an increase of 14.8 times.
The second bull market was from November 17, 1992 to February 16, 1993. At that time, A shares rose from 386 points to 1558 points, an increase of 303 %. This round of bull market lasted three months.
The third round of bull markets from July 29, 1994 to September 13, 1994. This round of bull market lasted very short, only one month, but the increase was quite fierce. %.
In the fourth round of bull markets from January 19, 1996 to May 12, 1997, lasting for nearly 4 months, in this round of bull markets, the stock market rose about 250%.
Then round bull market is from May 19, 1999 to June 14, 2001. The duration reaches two years and one month. Among this round of bull market, the Shanghai Index will reach 2245 points from the highest peak period from 1047 points. The increase reached 114%.
The 6th bull market is from June 6, 2005 to October 16, 2007. The duration reaches two years and 4 months. In this round of bull market, A shares have created the highest historical point, from 998 points, from 998 points It rushed until 6124, an increase of 513.49%.
This 7 bull market from October 29, 2008 to August 4, 2009. The duration is about 10 months. Among this round of bull market, the Shanghai Index has risen from 1664 to 3478 points, the increase reached to reaching the increase of reaching the increase. 109 %. rn 第8次牛市是从2014年7月22日到2015年6月12日，持续时间大概是11个月，在这轮牛市当中，大盘从2000点左右一直飙到5178点，涨幅It reaches about 159%.
In observing previous A -share bull markets, we can see that the shortest duration of the bull market is one and a half months, and the longest is about two and a half years.
In terms of increase, the lowest increase was 109%, and the highest increase reached 14.8 times.
. In this round of bull market, it should start from mid -March 2020. From around 2600 points in mid -March to 3,400 points now, A shares rose 30%, which means that if it is if it is This bull market is a real bull, which may still have a considerable room for rise.
This bull market has been last for more than three months. With reference to the long time of the bull market, it shows that there is still a long room for this round of bull market.
Is, understand the cause of this bull market. A -share bear cows are alternately a very normal law. There are some motivation for each appearance of the bull market, and there are some causes of the appearance of the bear market.
For example, among the several bull markets that appear in history, several times are caused by market funds that become more abundant, which is quite similar to the performance of this bull market.
In this round of bull market, due to the impact of the epidemic, the capital has become more abundant, which is also one of the main thrusts to promote the rise in the bull market.
So if you want to know how long this bull market can last, we must see how long the market funds will last.
I personally think that in the second half of the remaining half of 2020, my country's capital will continue to be in a state of abundant state. In addition, my country ’s further relaxation of foreign capital management and control. The situation.
On the other hand, the current real estate has also reached an inflection point, and the overall performance of the manufacturing industry is not ideal, so there will still be a lot of funds entering the stock market in the future.
But according to the predictions of relevant agencies, it is estimated that by the third quarter of 2020, my country's GDP growth rate will return to about 5.8%. By 2021, the growth rate of my country's overall GDP may even reach more than 8%.
Once the economy returns to the normal growth rate, or even the growth rate is faster, then the central bank may tighten the silver root at any time.
So I personally think that in the third quarter of 2020, it may become a key node for A shares. Once the economy returns to normal level, the central bank's funds will not continue to relax. By the end of the year, market funds may usher in an inflection point. By then, if the market funds are not enough to maintain the number of days, the stock market may start to turn.
This, I think that the bull market in A shares may still last for three to 6 months. After 3 months, A shares may be in a relatively stable state, and even slowly regulate slowly recovery back. And half a year later, no one knows the answer.
It how long the bull market can go, there is no theory to predict this kind of thing, because there are too many factors that are unpredictable. For example, who will know this wave of epidemic in advance and directly increase the world economy in 2020 to grow negatively. In this way, in this way Based on, is it possible for A shares to start the bull market? I think it is impossible. At best, it is the initial stage of the bull market.
If the end of the upper wave market, which is 2440 points, how long will this market go under normal circumstances? Some people may compare 998-6124 points and 1849-5178. These two waves of markets are the monthly line level, from the lowest point to the highest point for about two years. However, the author believes that such predictions are not suitable for this round.
First of all, the ecology of A shares is changing
1. The market value increases. In 2008 and 15 years, the market value of A shares is very small, and the market value of circulation is less. The expansion capacity has begun from 15 years, and now, the A -share stocks have been close to 4,000, and the market value has reached 70 trillion.
2. The status of dominant funds has been excessive from swimming to the hands of institutional funds
3. The registration system and the improvement of the delisting system, allowing the survival system of A shares to gradually mature The change determines that the past and falling market cannot appear in A shares. Therefore, the next wave of markets of A shares will be longer than before. The reality is the same. After returning to 2440 in 2019, it has not yet opened up the main rise, but a slow rising trend. This trend is healthier.
Secondly, the structure of this wave of market is different
. We put the market of A shares on the monthly line, and 6124 and 5178 are actually shocked in a center. The platform, and this wave is different, the 2440 points have not returned to the previous center, which means that this wave of market is the third category of buying points in the moon line, and after the first rising center, the strong monthly line three buy That is to say, there is enough space in the back to make San buy play.
Finally, the driver of the market rising is different
6124 The driver of that wave is the reform of the equity system. 5178 points are the release of financing. These messages have enough influence, but the continuity is not strong. As soon as time, the good effect will decrease, just like the US tax reduction, just a momentary good. The drive of this round of market is different. The author believes that there are many aspects. The system has a registration system and delisting system. It is economically 5G. This is the focus. 5G commercial use is comparable to the existence of an industrial revolution. The remote operation becomes reality and breaks the restrictions of the space distance.
This summary: The results of the US stocks relying on the results of the third industrial revolution in the 1980s have gone out of a 20 -year bull market. Can A shares rely on the advent of the 5G era? The author thinks it is very likely that it may not be able to walk for 20 years, but it will definitely be better than the previous two waves.
I remember the relatively famous big bull market in history for 2000 online stock markets, which last for 2 years, and then generated a quotation of 2,000 to 6000 points. The relatively long bull market, it is not difficult to make a conclusion, either a new economic activity that changes people's lifestyle has triggered a big market, or the big bull market brought by institutional changes. The bull market.
and is this market this time, or how long can it last?
I I think first of all, this market is the market that appears under the drive of the registration system, because the registration system is an emerging system, which changes the extremes of the market for a long time. A large number of new stock market -oriented issuance will inevitably cause a number of high -quality companies to go public, which is greatly beneficial to promoting the market valuation.
Since the registration system is an emerging system, it belongs to the product of institutional change. According to the model of the past equity distribution reform, the stock market should appear in the stock market. The characteristics are relatively obvious. After all, the registration system is under the registered system. Not all companies can fully perform in the bull market. Otherwise Small.
The slow cattle will be the main pattern of the future. I estimate that this duration will be as long as for a few years. I exaggerate that it may copy the continuous upward trend of the US stock market.
If forecast: The Securities and Futures Commission's control will be strict. Without the support of the real economy, it is not over the end of the epidemic. If you are about a month or two, you will see it.
First of all, the emergence of this bull market is that the international epidemic has continued to deteriorate, and domestic production is relatively good, which attracts foreign capital and speculation. The domestic international monetary policy is generally loose, and the market funds are relatively abundant, but the real economy is not as good as in previous years. House prices have stagnated, and the stock market has become a better speculative choice.
The second, this wave of technical cattle has lasted for more than three months, but it is particularly noticeable in the past week. Marx said that when there were more than 20%of profits, the capital was about to move. At present, a large number of retail investors have begun to act, a new round of leeks are growing rapidly, and the cow of the stock market is also soaring.
third, how long can the bull market last this time? Personal judgment will not be too far away, depending on the flow of epidemic and institutional funds. The reason for technology cattle is because the stock market lacks the support of the real economy for a period of time and in the future. The current bull market is only the risk of epidemic risk superimposed on the currency easing policy and speculative needs. When the institutional funds leave the market on a large scale, it is when the bear market comes.
How long can this bull market be maintained? This is not a predictive thing. Anyone says that they can predict how much bull market and bull market, or scammers and gods can be scammers and god sticks. The so -called bull markets, including the ten years of bull markets in the United States and the domestic history, are all unpredictable -when does it end? Often either either the end of the crazy, or the "accident" blows lead to the end.
For example, the ten -year bull market in the United States has been interrupted by this year's global new crown epidemic situation. Looking back, it once again entered the "technical bull market" -the index increased by more than 20%, which is the so -called "technical bull market" standard in Wall Street.
, from our country, the bull market was interrupted by the economic growth rate of the economic growth in 05-07 and the US financial crisis in 2008 — entering the bear market from the bull market;
and the bull market for 14-15 years. "Barbar break" was interrupted -forcibly went to fund -sharing to remove the lever bar and caused the bull market to enter the "stock disaster" model.
What stage is the current market?
First, the technology bull market and consumer pharmaceutical bull market transfer to the financial bull market -financial brokers, banks, insurance, double the trend and the continuous soaring model in just two weeks.
Secondly, incremental funds in the market swarmed into the venue.
It, from the perspective of the former, it is mainly the state's positive attitude towards the stock market and the reform of the Shanghai Index Comprehensive Index, and the reform of the GEM registration system, which has caused the market's "bull market expectation" "Change" must be "cow".
In the case of epidemic conditions, the state's expectations of increasing stock market financing support entities are very strong, including the policy support of science and technology boards, GEM, and local banks to supplement capital supplement capital.

. If it is currently, the main reasons for the increase of more than 50%in the short term of financial banks and insurance in the financial company are:
First, incremental funds enter the stock market The value depression that is unwilling to take over high levels of science and technology and medicine, but is willing to lay down an underestimated value depression;
second, the gradual improvement of financial reform expectations brings investment expectations;
third, the transaction level of the two cities is rapidly magnified rapidly At present, it is the fourth day to enter trillion.

Historically, "trillion" is a necessary prerequisite for the bull market, not sufficient necessary conditions.
In fact, it is currently in the market in incremental capital bees, which has led to the rapid amplification of market transactions to the level of "trillion". The expectation of double -clicking of the market transactions to a trillion -level level of market transactions, the more accelerated the rise, thereby forming the formation of "Davis Double -click" in the financial industry.
. As for how much the market bull market is ended or when the market is ended, it still looks:
The first, whether the market depression has been "filled", including finance, real estate and Chinese -character companies ;
It, whether the market valuation level enters the foaming stage -for example, the valuation of pharmaceutical innovation has reached more than 100 times, and technology chips have been talking about "feelings" rather than corporate profitability;
Whether the third market transaction exceeds the peak of history and cannot continue to be enlarged -unable to continue to magnify often means that incremental funds in the market have been exhausted and converted to the stock game;
fourth, it still depends on whether there is an "external accident" One of the most important reasons for the factors that interrupt the bull market -one of the important formation of the inflection point of the bull market in the history of Chinese and foreign is "external factors", including supervision and strong intervention and cracking down hype, including "removing poles".
How how long will the stock market be awesome and how long the bear will be, in fact, no one can fully predict.
In 2007, the broader market rose to 6124 points. Everyone thought that the broader market would exceed 10,000 points. As a result, the broader market suddenly peaked, and it fell to 1664 points, and the decline was very heavy. In the bull market in 2015, the broader market rose to 5178 points. Everyone thinks that it will inevitably break through the 6124 points 8 years ago, and there is no 10,000 points on the standing year. As a result, the broader market once again peaked, and investors lost heavy losses. At each bull market, no one can fully predict where the accurate top.

It is the same during the decline. Every time after a period of time, someone predicts that it is the bottom. The new bull market is coming, but every time it fails. The GEM index rose to 4037 points in 2015. During the decline, it fell to 2500 points and fell to 2,000 points. Many people thought that they had bottomed out. By 1184 points, the decline was as high as 70.7%, and many stocks fell more than 90%, which could not be said to be miserable.

The bottom of the market is really difficult to predict. Therefore, there is often a sentence in the stock market: the bull market is not talking, and the bear market is not bottom. In other words, let us not guess the bottom of the market, the top and bottom are never guessing.
We we can only see if it is roughly in the safety range and dangerous range. For example, when the market falls to 2440 points, the P / Empires of the CSI 300 Index is only 9 times, the P / E ratio of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is only 11 times, and the valuation level is valued at the level of valuation. It is very low, even if it is a decline, there is not much risk.
Similarly, when the stock market rises very high, whether it is 6124 points in 2007 or 5178 points in 2015, it corresponds to a high level of valuation. At this time, it is still possible to rush inside. Take the risk of the top. But the market is not completely rational. When it rises, it will rise, and it will fall over when it falls. For example, when rising, the stock price of many stocks has been seriously separated from the fundamentals, but it is still soaring. At this time, it is no longer its valuation that determines the stock price, but the emotional and funding supply of investors.
Therefore, in the face of the market, we can only choose to be in awe and respect. The market is always right. When we think that the broader market should not rise, it may continue to rise; when we think that the broader market should not fall anymore, we should no longer fall any more. It may continue to fall and even fall even worse. What we should do is to do with the trend.
Is when the market trend is up, the stock market is naturally easier than falling. This is the result of the long -term and long game of the market. At this time, the decline is easier than rising. Even after the bottom -up, it has risen in the short term. There is no selling, and it may fall more afterwards.

The trend can look at the weekly, monthly, and seasonal lines. The longer the cycle trend, the stronger the intensity. This is the most simple truth. There is no need to predict how much is the top, and no one can predict which day is the top. How long can the market last, but we can follow the cycle structure and follow the trend.

In don't always think about how long this bull market will go? In fact, even if there is an accurate answer, what is the relationship with a single investor? Can investors know the date, can they earn the most money in the market? Do you know that the end of the final bull market can become the top master of investment?
Since it is an investment in the securities market, you must have an independent judgment. There are also good stocks in the bear market, and the bull market will still lose money. Aren't there many people warning investors now? The proportion of losing money in the bull market is higher. What does it mean? Even if it is born in a bull market, it is impossible to be all stocks, all sectors, and all broad markets have increased the same. Many investors do not have their own independent opinions, and they will chase and fall. When it is rushing in, it is a stock or section falling in again. The end result was that he did not stand on the cusp, but was swallowed by the waves every time.
The overall securities market will continue to improve in the future. At this time, it is meaningless to study when to reach the end. What should I really study at this time?
1. What kind of investment risk matching ability is it? For example, some people's investment styles are conservative, so the so -called futures and grading funds and other products can only go away from themselves. Regardless of their rise and fall, they should not care or participate. Investors must match their investment strategy with their own investment style, otherwise they may not eat well every day and not sleep well.
2. What kind of investment habits are you? Some people like to run around in the short -term, and some people like to keep it for a long time. Then this investment habit determines your investment target and your views on investment profit and loss. Short -term operators, the pursuit of target profit is relatively low, because they will continue to chase hot spots, and finally accumulate less. And medium and long -term investors used time to increase profit, and strive to eat on a ticket.
Moutai is new again, why didn't you buy Moutai? Have you found the reason? When Mr. De turned back to the book "Stock Memo Memoirs", he discovered the truth, "The courage of speculators is that they have confidence to trade according to their own decisions." Many people think that buying Moutai is a speculative, high price -earnings ratio and single variety, but now it has become the best value investment variety in my country. And whether in the bull market or a bear market, he is the best variety. Is this the end of the Tao bull market?
Why are many people in the bull market, and they are particularly easy to lose money? Mainly because he feels that the money in the bull market seems to be too good to make money, and you can make money if you buy only tickets, so ordinary investors will quickly forget their stock selection standards, and even forget their investment concepts, and buy poor quality. The company may buy a company with a high valuation. In the end, once the market falls, these two types of stocks may never reach a new high, so a real loss will occur.
The everything is related to themselves, not the shortcomings of the cow mayor in the securities market. When we are deep in a bull market, we must change our wrong investment ideas and investment habits to become a professional investor, so as to earn more profits than others in the bull market and avoid it in the bear market in the bear market. More risks and losses.

This year's global global impact is greatly affected by the new crown epidemic, the economic situation is special, and the black swan is frequent. How long can this bull market last in 2020, it is difficult to predict, but it is undeniable that it is The new wave of bull market has come, but to be prepared at any time, whoever is greedy will be cut.
In 2020 Bull market starts from the above data and "from the bear to the cow", in the 2020 cycle, this bull market comes a little fast, some suddenly, and fast cows must accumulate a lot of risks and bubbles. Those who are greedy must be difficult to turn around. They must be prepared at any time to end the bull market. After all, the market is special in 2020, and no one can predict the length of the economic cycle of this round. But assuming that in 2019 as a bear market, the bull market is slower.
How long can this bull market be maintained? We can refer to the time in the history of China's stock market. We can calculate all the "big cows" and "Mavericks" in all history:
-On May 26, 1992, it lasted for a year and a half
The second round of bull market: November 17, 1992-February 16, 1993, maintained three or four months
: July 29, 1994-September 13, 1994, it maintained for more than a month
The fourth round of bull market: January 1996-May 12, 1997, last year and a half
The fifth round of bull market: May 19, 1999-June 15, 2001, last year
The sixth round of bull market: June 6, 2005-October 16, 2007 2 years and 4 months
The seventh round of bull market: October 29, 2008-August 4, 2009, maintained 10 months
The eighth round of bull market: July 22, 2014-2015 On June 12th, the longest bull market was maintained for more than two years, and the shortest bull market was maintained for more than 1 month from the above data analysis.
The conclusion is the so -called bear market squeeze bubble and bull market blowing foam. At present, the global economy is affected by the new crown epidemic, and various types of investment channels have narrowed and investment opportunities are limited. In terms of capital, there will be a large number of funds in the later period of funds, and the bubble will become bigger and bigger.
The next few months in my country's stock market will still rise, but as far as I personally, this bull market will not last too long, and it will be prepared to turn around in the next six months.

Igone A-share bull market cycles: Since 1996, there are five vigorous bull markets for A shares, namely 1996-1997, 1999-2001, 2005-2009, 2008-12009 In year, 2014-2015. These rounds of market indexes have been turned at least within three years. The most magnificent waves have risen from 998 in 2005 to 6124 points, and more than two years have risen more than six times!
Sess years of data show that the bull market cycle is roughly one year to two years. In fact, the starting point of this round of quotes in early 2019, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the starting point of a wave of 2440, should be counted. During the period of nearly a year of two waves, it now enters the wealth of the three waves to rise, and the rich theory of wealth buying three waves and three waves. This is also the reason why countless wave theory followers, and most of the market starts this stage. Recently, these trading days have been the best proof. This is also the stage of many investors shouting the bull market.
The bull market cycle: The index has doubled the market, so instead of discussing the cycle, it is better to consider the market to reach the farthest point. After all, the time effect of crazy cattle and slow bulls is completely different. The calculation of 2440 points in this round of waves is 4880 points, while 6124 and 5178 point high -point connecting wire suppression lines are around 4500, and the final point is near 4500 to 4880 points. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is currently 3345. At the beginning of the stage, how long the market can last depends on how fierce its pull is, slow, and short.

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